As we approach the end of the year, I thought now would be an appropriate time to take stock of the changes that have been happening around us in the wider games industry over recent times, and try to predict what the trajectory of current events in the world of indie gaming is, to predict what the future might look like. Here’s my indie gaming predictions for 2010, and please share yours in the comments too.

1. Indies target game streaming exclusively
I thought I’d kick off these predictions with something a bit out of the left field. I reckon that in the next year or so, we’ll see at least one indie developer produce a game for a service like OnLive, put together on a relatively meager budget, specifically for streaming. It will be designed around the assumption of a small amount of lag, designed to control equally well with keyboard & mouse, controller or touch screen device, and will be only available as a streamed game.

2. Crowd funding grows
We’ve already seen a whole host of games using services like kickstarter and 8-bit funding, and as more projects launch successfully using services like these, and offer early availability alpha preorder deals, I think we can expect a wider range of developers use these kind of funding models, and perhaps even come up with new ways for a game’s userbase to cover the cost of development.

3. Android tablet software market emerges.
The iOS App Store has already presented a viable market for indie developers to target for tablet versions of their games, but the android market is still playing catch up. Whether it’s devices like Amazon’s Kindle Fire, or Ice Cream Sandwich based android 4.0 devices, it seems that within the next year the tablet market for android should develop beyond infancy, and indie devs with have another potential revenue stream.

4. More developers leaving the mainstream industry to go indie
Whether it’s as a result of big studios going bust, frustration at the 9-5 lifestyle, or just seeing more opportunities arising elsewhere, more and more developers have been quitting jobs in the mainstream industry and deciding to go full time indie. The barriers for entry and getting smaller and smaller, and making a career developing games on your own term seems to be an increasingly viable possibility for lots of developers. This trend seems only set to increase.

5. Indie bundles aren’t going anyway
Promotions like the Humble Indie Bundle and Indie Royale aren’t going anywhere. They seem to be a pretty big success for everyone involved: Developers get a short term spike in revenue paired with a huge jump in word of mouth. Gamers get lots of games a cut prices. No doubt the individuals working on these promotions will keep working hard to keep them interesting for their customers, and I expect we’ll even see increased competition in this field too.

6. Indie developer access will be an important part of the plan for any new consoles.
It’s hard to say what new consoles we might get in 2010. For sure, there’s already the Wii-U and the PSP vita, but whilst new home consoles from Microsoft and Sony see unlikely, it’s not that much of a stretch to think that they might announce new consoles sometime this upcoming calender year. Considering that the PS2 & Original Xbox had hardly any indie support, the consoles have certainly come a long way in just one generation. Will we perhaps see Microsoft drop the requirement for developers to have a publisher before they’re allowed on XBLA? Will they perhaps work on XBLIG visibility & other issues? Will Sony rework their Minis range to be a little more indie friendly? Indies have done fantastically well out of digital distribution over the last few years, but in many ways the consoles are still catching up to more responsive markets like the PC and iOS. That said….

7. Nintendo still won’t get indies
Of all the platform holders, it’s been Nintendo dragging it’s heels for getting their players interested in indie games, and opening up their platformers to the many talented indie devs around the world. Their condescending stance of not wanting to deal with garage developers is as confusing as it is a missed opportunity. Even well received indie hits like VVVVVV and Cave Story have only received releases on Nintendo platformers when there has been a publisher trying to make it happen: And these type of games could have never originally seen the light of day on Nintendo platforms, it was only because other open platforms exist where they could get people’s attention in the first place. Hopefully they will upend the tea table, and get a new perspective on things. I’d love to play original interesting indie games on Nintendo platforms, but as it stands it looks like they’re only interested in dealing with already established smaller developers, or only relatively safe re-releases from other platforms. I’d love to see an ideological shift from Nintendo here, but history has taught me to not count on it.

8. EA will attempt to court Indies for Origin
After having signed up the likes of Warner Bros, THQ & Capcom, I reckon EA are eyeing up the rest of the PC market for it’s fledgling digital distribution service, and that means indies. How aggressively they want to seek support from indies is hard to say, but if they seriously plan on putting their muscle behind Origin and the PC market, they can only go so far dealing with large publishers.

9. There will be game that is bigger than Minecraft.
We’ve all been positively stunned at how successful Notch’s Minecraft has been. Hats off to him and everyone at Mojang: It’s massively exceeded our expectations, and having finally received a v1.0 release and exceeded 4 million sales, perhaps it’s time to start wondering what will be the next indie mega-hit. I’ve certainly got no clue as to what it might be, but I think it’s more likely than not that we’ll see another game emerge as the next big thing some time next year. I think we can expect some or all of Minecraft’s qualities like community-centric design, user generated content and procedural rendering to be a big part of many upcoming successful indie games.

10. Everything will be OK
For all the changes, and ebbs and flows, I think things will be all right. It’s always been the case that the indie developers who make the most interesting games, are the most effective at marketing and work the hardest get rewarded with the sales at the end of the day, and there are more opportunities to make money selling games today than there have ever been before. Competition in indie gaming circles is increasing, but there’s also way more people playing indie games these days too. I think we’ve got a good year of indie gaming ahead of us.

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